Years from now, universities may join the ranks of abandoned malls and factories, their deserted campuses monuments to bygone times. Wed love to help your school move forward with confidence! Universities often look to international students to make up the shortfall in domestic enrolment. This episode addresses the upcoming enrollment cliff in Higher Education. Exploring the Exodus from Higher Education. Edge Research, May 2022, https://edgeresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/HCM-EDGE-Research.pdf. Is There an Enrollment Cliff, and Will it Affect Law School Materials: Whiteboard/flip charts, Computer This wasnt from traditional student, but entirely due to dual enrollment (i.e., high school students). Assess the external context of your institution. Among the changes: the phasing out of 84 low-demand degree programs; the grouping of the business, health and law colleges into one professional college; the creation of a university studies program in which all incoming freshman will start their academic journey; and a shift away from academic departments to interdisciplinary divisions. https://www.cpajournal.com/2020/10/05/the-enrollment-cliff-mega-universities-covid-19-and-the-changing-landscape-of-u-s-colleges, https://www.cupahr.org/issue/feature/higher-ed-enrollment-cliff, https://resources.campuslogic.com/blog/we-re-facing-an-enrollment-cliff-here-s-how-we-overcome-it, Sharing the Podium with the Elephant in the Room, Managing Projects Effectively: A Guide for Department Heads, Part I, The Three As of Supporting Academic Staff, Foundations for Effective Recruiting: A Chairs Perspective. expanding to new demographics, new programs, increased collaboration between departments). Whats Next? The Chronicle of Higher Education, vol. HR leaders at institutions looking down the pike at an enrollment decline should be having regular conversations now with their senior leaders to understand the details and nuances around the issue. Cliff High School serves 96 students in grades 7-12. Students in a two-year program have less commitment than those in four-year programs. Accessed 10 Mar. The impacts of these disruptions have only been exacerbated by a decade-long rise in nonconsumption of higher education by recent high school graduates. 1. Generation': Fall College Enrollment Plummets If you work at a college or university, no doubt someone at some time Request from the levels above you a practice of consistent messaging and transparency. How can Human Resources be part of the solution? Some states could see enrollment dip by as much as 24 percent. Enrollment Cliff By continuing to use our site or by closing this banner without changing your cookie settings, you agree to our use of cookies. What Are You Doing to Survive the Enrollment Cliff? are a key reason for the decline in enrollment. Because of disparities in the size and enrollment at each site, the range of funding per student in elementary schools ranges from $7,225 to $23,815, in part Read: Elite-college admissions are broken. Community colleges actually enjoyed an enrollment uptick. Post-Recession Cliff Looms for Community Colleges So whats the worst-case scenario for enrollment marketing teams? Were a few years away from the enrollment cliff coming into view, but it will jolt many ill-prepared colleges and universities. For those who may not be part of a more modest future at your institution, how can you help them see the bright side of retirement? Our procedures now have to include more stringent enforcement of cybersecurity. WebThe enrollment cliff in higher education is the prediction that enrollment will fall approximately 15% between the years of 2025-2029, according to statistical trends. WebAcademic leaders are preparing to encounter what has become known as a cliff in traditional student enrollment. Spend 10% of your time talking and 90% of your time listening. Marketing, Sales)? 2023. The 10th edition of their Knocking at the College Door report predicts that most U.S. states will see a significant enrollment dropoff by 2037. Years after the publication of Nathan Grawes 2017 book Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, there is still extensive discussion about how to best approach the impending enrollment cliff. We must provide them with the technology they need to learn these skills. August 14, 2023 at 4:30 AM PDT. The demographic cliff of traditional college students that is projected to arrive in the middle of this decade is a well-known fact among higher education leaders. enrollment WebEnrollment Cliff and How HR Can Help. Missy Kline, "The Looming Higher Ed Enrollment Cliff," Higher Ed HR Magazine (Fall 2019); Tom Boland, "Higher Education Is Headed for a Quality Cliff Edge: It Must Help Itself," University Times, April 19, 2019. Pursell, L. (n.d.). On the job training seen as most valuable among high school graduates who stopped-out or didnt begin college (survey on the value of education and training options; percentage choosing good to excellent). Moody, Josh. Web18. The looming higher ed enrollment cliff. Yet, despite its fallout, it would be irresponsible to lay the enrollment cliff issue solely at the feet of the pandemic. talked about among presidents cabinets and boards of trustees across the nation, as higher ed leaders look to get in front of this challenge. As more employed students pursue higher education, you must ensure your curriculums work around their time. 00:00:00. Are you aware of the key projects that the institution is working on? Johns Hopkins University Press. Over the next decade, the number of 18-year-old Americans will peak in 2025 at about 9.4 million. While the pandemic certainly played a critical role in depressing enrollment rates, the declines also partly reflect long-term demographic shifts. Will Your College Survive the Demographic Cliff? Says Kennedy, HR strategic consultants collaborate and work closely with all the HR services teams and centers of excellence across campus to put HR ahead of the necessary changes, so we can position our organization to be proactive., Understand the business of higher education. Staff and faculty who will be asked to do more with less can easily become discouraged and frustrated, and with a strong economy and low unemployment rates, these workers will have many options to find other employment, he says. This is a hot-button issue. Believe me when I say your enrollment efforts wont gain traction by simply shouting your brands message from the rooftops. A new data dashboard is helping college leaders prepare for expected enrollment declines and demographic shifts. Are you aware of what is happening in terms of mergers and acquisitions activity? How to Climb Higher Eds Impending Demographic Cliff National Trends Are Interesting--but Enrolling Students Is a Local Challenge. The Chronicle of Higher Education, April 1, 2022. Identify the student retention goals of the institution. Why is college enrollment declining? Books like What Color Is Your Parachute? This was found in a survey of 1,675 high school graduates ages 1830 who had decided not to go to college or had dropped out of a two-year or four-year college program. Only 46% of students have resumed their higher education plans after the pandemic. Some may even be alumni. The Looming Higher Ed Enrollment Cliff. Stats confirm that this tuition increase will continue, with projections extending to 2036. demographic cliff There have been changes to the compliance requirements for Title IV institutions which are engaging with Online Program Management (OPM) companies. Plan for cost reduction both internally through centralization efforts and externally through partnerships with other institutions. Your dual-credit liaison can communicate early and in a more personalized way with learners in the dual-credit courses than, for instance, a college recruiter who does not have the same knowledge about students and their interests. What will likely happen to the staffing in your unitand can you live with that? While the speakers name escapes me, what he said about the demographic trends that would ultimately affect higher education some 10 to 20 years in the future was astonishing. Last Revised: April 28, 2023. Fast forward 18 to 24 years (where we are now), and there are fewer traditional-age students. Investing in student support services to help retain current students and attract new ones. The traditional college experience is less common than ever. The preliminary weighted average rate change is an increase of 6 percent, due in part to the return of a normal medical trend that existed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the potential end of the increased and expanded financial help offered to eligible 2023. TUs new model includes a STEM-heavy curriculum, a high-touch education providing both practical and professional training, and a focus on undergraduate studies. Enrollment 1. So lets hop in our time machine to give the enrollment cliff some historical context. second. As a department chair, what are you doing about it? Burns, Adam, et al. Known as the college Use the PESTLE outcomes to discover the primary objectives of your stakeholders with respect to IT priorities. Briar Cliff University asks that all traditional undergraduate students (including incoming first-years, transfer students, or international students) officially join the incoming class at Briar Cliff University but submitting a $75 enrollment deposit. Prepare for the Upcoming Enrollment Cliff in Higher Ed Our analyst calls are focused on helping our members use the research we produce, and our experts will guide you to successful project completion. I focused on learning about strategic planningthe mechanics, trends and prevalent goals of the day, such as sustainability and diversity. enrollment cliff That means crunching data and narrowing your target audience. In the conversation I referenced earlier, Tim made an astute observation about WICHEs findings specific to some areas of the country: Those of us who live in states where cold temperatures and snow are a regular thing, generally speaking, our projections are not looking so good. Cliff How is the institution addressing alternatives to their certification? 3:13. COVID-19 sped up enrollment concerns not just for recent high The enrollment cliff is a reduction in the number of high school graduates available to enroll in secondary education beginning in 2026. 3/5: Most Americans believe colleges and students share the blame for time-to-degree problems. The key to getting free, organic traffic to your website, and more. Ten Speed Press. Economic: Examine economic factors such as interest rates, inflation rate, exchange rates, financial and stock markets, and the job market. The interactive data Diversify your playbook. CUPA-HR. Reduce vendor spending through strategic vendor management. Why? Govern Shared Services. Set yourself free from your shrinking marketing budget with my popular ebook Marketing on a Shoestring Budget! The IT department needs to be proactive in its response to the enrollment cliff. Without that demonstrated knowledge to our colleagues, namely our provosts and chief financial officers, we wont be pulled into the discussion and decision-making; instead they will bring us in on the back end, when the decisions have already been made. Identify the relevant stakeholders that you need to interview: President, Provost, Registrar, VP Finance, VP Enrollment, VP Student Affairs. Why Marketing is Crucial to Student Retention By contrast, mountain states, where there are fewer students and fewer colleges may see slight increases in student demand, as could institutions in the Southwest due to high rates of immigration over the past several years although immigration has slowed considerably as of late. Some of our programs are already feeling the pressure, while others probably wont feel the pain for several years, if at all, he says. There are a lot of decisions the university is making, and they want and need data to make those decisions. Indiana University. Allusions to looming demographic issues provoking a crisis in higher ed are common. Toward the end of the conference, I sat in a packed and stuffy conference room. Dec 14, 2020. We need multiple perspectives to create successful solutions. You can start as early as tomorrow morning. Reports of students struggling in class amid the COVID-19 pandemic could also foreshadow the (You can see details of these trends and learn more by visiting the National Center for Education Statistics website and, in particular, Projections of Education Statistics to Year 2028.). 1, Sept. 2022, p. 32+. This is likely due to the end of pandemic relief funding which supported struggling institutions. The Enrollment Cliff: A Call to Action for Higher Education - Caylor Solutions Since the pandemic, Ive heard a lot of chatter about the impending International students can go further in Australia or Canada than in the US to make up a shortfall in domestic enrolment. Embrace the things that dont fit (Anything truly new wont fit into a defined category, but whats new will likely change the future. IT must align itself with institutional efforts to increase a competitive advantage. Stakeholder Interviews This month's AGU/AGI Heads and Chairs online discussion explores the enrollment cliff and what that means for the geoscience departments. A new manufacturing plant has opened in our city, and many students now need specialized training. Enrollment Cliff However, while the economy has rebounded in the decade since, the birthrate has not. Jackson, Chris, et al. As of 2021, 70 American institutions shut their doors over a 5-year window (I think many of my readers should also note that nearly half of those schools were faith-based). The majority of students do not plan to return to higher education. The last decade was a precursor to these changes. Accessed 30 Mar. Through these collaborative, campus-wide conversations, our HR professionals are getting a clearer understanding of how HR can be part of the solution.. The number one thing your website needs to do. enrollment cliff Then discuss the implications for ITs support. Enable marketing, sales, and customer service teams by successfully choosing and implementing a suite for customer relationship management. Create an IT strategy based on business needs, not just intuition. Friday, August 26, 2022. mrpotato101/ Shutterstock. Despite the unique challenges the enrollment cliff presents, your survival will hinge on fortifying the three pillars of your marketing strategy: These pillars are meant to support your enrollment marketing strategy as a unit, so dont neglect one by forcing all your resources into another. While that rate slowed slightly during the pandemic, it has increase in 2023. As described in Synario magazine, American post-secondary institutions are hurting and are now bracing for another crisis yet again. We need to continue to look to externally hosted solutions to decrease the number of physical assets on campus. Average cost after financial aid for students receiving grant or scholarship aid, as reported by the college. Students: Changing demographics? So take the reins and begin by imagining what will happen if enrollments do drop by 15 percent. That continues the trend of dual enrollment propelling growth at two-year colleges. They are more inclined to be polite and nod yes to get out of the situation you are putting them in. A good number of college and university administrations are anxious about the future of higher education. If your institution is like many, you have faculty and staff at different ranks and levels of seniority, each with their own strengths and weaknesses. How are government policies impacting your priorities? Im stopping short of pulling the alarm, but to say that college and university administrations should be concerned would be an understatement. Typically, higher educations life cycle lags behind the economys life cycle by 18 to 24 years, which is also the traditional age for students. The terms cliff (also known as peak) and trough are two of five words used to describe the life cycle of the economy (expansion, peak, contraction, trough and Share Comments The State of the Profession - The CPA Journal WebColleges face 'enrollment cliff'. This can involve offering financial planning and retirement planning information. $21,734 / year. WebThe Enrollment Cliff. In a blog post on CampusLogic, Lyquaia Purcell (n.d.) cites research showing that students who experience earlier and more personalized engagement are twice as likely apply to college. The enrollment cliff. This trend will accelerate the winner-take-all dynamic of geographic consolidation that is already upending American politics. By Hilary Burns. This is seen at the University of Kansas which recently announced a plan to cut 42 programs (Moody, University of Kansas Looks to Cut 42 Academic Programs.). It has a total undergraduate enrollment of 766 (fall 2021), its setting is city, and the campus size is 70 acres. However, says John Martin, director of client services at Princeton University, This seat at the table is something that must be earned its not necessarily guaranteed.. Copley, P., & Douthett, E. (2020, October). What the looming demographic storm means for This can include targeted advertising campaigns, social media outreach, and offering more personalized interactions with prospective students. Understand the IT Implications for the Enrollment Cliff 46%: Half of Americans believe affordability is a top priority for public colleges and universities. That results in a monthly premium of $858 for a benchmark silver plan, or just under 10 percent of the familys annual income. Small private universities are more likely to close because they are unlikely to meet the merger needs of a university looking to expand. This could, for instance, take the form of a certificate for working professionals or an add-on certificate for undergraduates. When your reassigned faculty member serves as a liaison to recruit, recommend for credentialing, and mentor high school teachers who offer dual credit in their schools through your department, you create a direct line of contact with teachers and their students. We partner closely with IT teams to provide everything they need, from actionable tools to analyst guidance, ensuring they deliver measurable results for their organizations. The enrollment cliff is coming and now is the time for colleges and universities to act. Legal: Examine legal factors such as trade laws, labor laws, environmental laws, and privacy laws. Higher education institutions know they need to prepare for the coming enrollment cliff by focusing on different demographic groups than the usual college recruits. Listen for times when the interviewee trails off or leaves something open-ended and dig deeper into these areas. Subscribe for free to Inside Higher Eds newsletters, featuring the latest news, opinion and great new careers in higher education delivered to your inbox. Economic uncertainty had gripped American households, and they were planning their families futures accordingly. Enrollment management strategies have become far more sophisticated, data-informed, and competitive. You might use some existing courses or collaborate with another unit to develop an interdisciplinary program. More likely, we just get crumbling public k12 and crumbling higher ed. Enrollment across postsecondary institutions has been falling since 2010. THE ENROLLMENT CLIFF: A Netflix Moment for Higher Ed - Synario This is the single most common mistake new interviewers make. Enrollment Cliff Fewer high school students going to college is a worrying trend if subsequent years follow suit. 82%: Student debt is widely seen as an overall problem. Materials: Whiteboard/flip charts, A computer Determine where your mission-fit students like to hang out and revise your comm flow accordingly. 15, Apr. To make college more affordable will require not only fundraising but also ease of access to existing funds. However, the number of students in these countries is proportionally larger due to their lower national populations. Tim Fuller, Founder of Fuller Higher Ed Solutions. In the United Kingdom, the number of 18-year-olds is expected to grow over the next decade. But that ended as of 2021, thanks to the American Rescue Plans provision that eliminates the subsidy cliff .. Larger universities are competing on intimate college experience. It is more important than ever for colleges and universities to plant their flag in the ground and find their community niche. Participants: Interviewer from IT, Relevant stakeholders. Are there changes to financial aid structures? Use the output from stakeholder interviews to inform the discussion of Five Forces framework. Are you planning a premature exiteither from administration or from academiaso you dont have to deal with it? Anyone can learn how to be an effective interviewer as long as they are willing to put themselves on the spot and be willing to fail. Two ways you can respond to the enrollment cliff are by finding new ways to reach the student population your institution is already trying to recruit, and by finding and generating new student populations you havent reached in the past. CampusLogic. Are you aware of the relationships between the projects, capabilities, and goals in the institution? There have been changes in security regulations for student data. As a result of the 2008 housing crisis and subsequent recession, the enrollment cliff reflects birth rates in the United States, which dropped in the decade following that recession. Ask what next often. The Enrollment Cliff in the United States- Statistics & Facts The PIE News. How are we competing with massive online universities like Western Governors? So schools are already feeling mounting pressure to justify their value, and the enrollment cliff is still over the horizon line. 2718 Dryden Drive Madison, WI 53704 1-800-433-0499, Home |Annual Conference | About Us | Subscribe. Will demand for certain programs change in response to job potential in the wider economy? A better way exists. As more and more people return to the workforce, fewer students enroll in courses at community colleges. CHICO, Calif. - Chico State is seeing a drop in enrollment, but the pandemic is not the only factor. It is important to build resilient HR teams that can represent the mission and purpose of the various offices of the university. Making sense of demographic trends and their implications for institutional strategies. Tough decisions ahead as SFUSD nears fiscal cliff - San Francisco Adapted from: Porters Five Forces: Focus on Higher Education Marketing., Input: Insights from the stakeholder interviews The last time we met in Leading Matters, we discussed the rapidly approaching Enrollment Cliff and its impact on small and mid-tier institutions in Higher Education.In the face of struggling to capture the same level of enrollment just a few years out, institutional leadership needs to strategically plan now and be prepared to make
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